2028 Presidential Race Takes Early Shape: Vance Dominates GOP Field While Democrats Face Close Contest
Updated October 29, 2025
With more than three years remaining until the next presidential election, clear frontrunners are already emerging in both major parties, setting the stage for what could be a highly competitive 2028 race.
Vance Commands Comfortable Lead Among Republicans
Vice President JD Vance has established himself as the overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination, commanding approximately 45–47% support in major polling aggregates. His dominant position reflects strong consolidation within the GOP base as he serves alongside President Donald Trump, who won his second non-consecutive term in 2024.
Vance’s lead places him well ahead of other potential Republican challengers including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio, signaling that the party may be coalescing around Trump’s chosen successor earlier than historical norms would suggest.
Democratic Race Remains Wide Open
The Democratic field presents a starkly different picture, with Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom locked in a competitive battle for frontrunner status. Both politicians are polling between 20–25% support, with Harris maintaining a slight edge in two major aggregates while Newsom leads in another.
The near-tie between the two prominent California Democrats suggests the party has yet to consolidate behind a clear favorite, leaving the 2028 Democratic primary wide open for competition.
Trump Ineligible for 2028 Bid
President Trump’s victory in 2024 marked his second term in office following his first term from 2017–2021. Under the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, no person can be elected to the presidency more than twice, making Trump constitutionally ineligible to seek the office again in 2028.
This constitutional limitation has helped position Vice President Vance as the natural heir to Trump’s political movement and the early favorite to carry the Republican banner in the next election cycle.
What It Means
The early polling data suggests Republicans may face a relatively straightforward nomination process if Vance maintains his commanding lead, while Democrats appear headed for a potentially divisive primary battle between Harris and Newsom, with neither candidate yet establishing decisive dominance over the field.
Political analysts caution that early polling more than three years before an election has limited predictive value, but the current numbers provide insight into how candidates and their teams are positioning themselves for what promises to be a consequential presidential race.